Flight path 2025: What lies ahead for Indian carriers

However, the new year is likely to see slower deliveries of Boeing aircraft, leading to Indian airlines inducting fewer planes than they did in 2024. Still, India's largest air carrier IndiGo could add to its fleet in the Indian skies if it's able to get some of its grounded planes airworthy with the availability of engines.

According to media reports, Indian carriers were expected to induct around 150 aircraft in 2024. Data shared by Cirium, an aviation analytics firm, showed Indian airlines have already taken delivery of 97 commercial aircraft so far in 2024, with ten scheduled deliveries in the remaining days of December. By contrast, Cirium’s fleet data indicates Indian airlines expect to add 86 new commercial aircraft in 2025.

In 2024, deliveries by two main global manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, were affected due to global supply chain challenges, precipitated by geopolitical tensions. However, deliveries by Airbus to Air India group and IndiGo remained in line with expectations. But deliveries by Boeing were affected by the weeks-long workers' strike at its manufacturing facility in the US. As per data available on Boeing's website, the American firm delivered only 30 B-737 MAX aircraft to Air India group and Akasa.

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In 2025, Indian air carriers will not be able to induct white tail aircraft. According to a Cirium official, "Neither Airbus nor Boeing has any stock of white tail aircraft remaining, so this is unlikely to be a route to fleet expansion for Indian carriers."

Of the of 86 aircraft that are likely to be delivered in 2025, a majority - about 55 - will go to IndiGo, followed by Air India. As per Cirium, Indigo will get deliveries of 22 A320neo, 30 A321neo (including 5 A321neoXLR) and 3 ATR 72-600).

Air India is likely to induct 19 new aircraft in 2025. This would include 8 A320NEO, 6 A321NEO, 1 A350-1000 and 4 A350-900. From Boeing, the Air India group is expected to get only 3 deliveries of B-737 MAX 8 aircraft for budget carrier Air India Express.

IndiGo currently has over 60 grounded A320NEO and A321NEO, due to issues with Pratt & Whitney's PW-1700G engines. The airline anticipates that groundings will moderate going forward. The number of grounded aircraft is expected to reduce to a little over 40 aircraft in the first half of 2025.

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Boring deliveries

Currently, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has imposed a cap on the production of 737 MAX. As per this cap, in 2025 Boeing, will be able to manufacture only 38 MAX aircraft a month. It is expected to attempt to ramp up MAX production in 2025. Cirium said, "Potentially, Boeing is expected to expand production beyond 38 aircraft every month once certain conditions are met. With that in mind, we expect to see increasing numbers of 737 MAX by 2026, including 22 for Akasa Air and four for Air India," Cirium analysts said.

Forecast for 2025

Cirium’s data indicates that both Indian domestic and outbound international capacities are expected to grow 12% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Cirium’s fleet forecast projects the passenger aircraft fleet in service to reach almost 900 aircraft at the end of 2025.

Experts believe that revival of the grounded fleet, which is around 90 in the country, is a more important area to focus on in 2025. Mark D. Martin of Martin Consulting believes that the government needs to take a stern action against Pratt & Whitney. "India fleet induction and deliveries need to be fast-tracked. Along with it, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) need to work on component and engine reliability. The catch-22 we deal with today is brand new aircraft being inducted and simultaneously getting grounded as a result of the Pratt and Whitney GTF engine," he told Mint.

"Today, there around 90 aircraft grounded because of engines failing, and now it's time the government did something about this by taking up stern action on Pratt and Whitney, said Martin.

And read | Boeing deliveries will taper off by year-end. What happens to Akasa and AI Express?