AI still can’t replace human instinct when it comes to judgement calls

However, amid the excitement surrounding AI’s potential, it is crucial to recognize its current limitations and the enduring importance of human instinct and situational awareness.

One of the most visible arenas where the challenges of AI decision-making have come to the fore is the arena of self-driving cars. Despite billions of dollars of investment and years of development, even the most advanced autonomous vehicles today are prone to mistakes that human drivers would instinctively avoid.

As leading AI researcher Missy Cummings points out, these issues stem from two primary factors: inadequate sensors and recognition technology, and a more fundamental lack of true “situational awareness" in AI systems as they exist today.

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Human drivers can draw upon a vast reservoir of common-sense knowledge accumulated through experience over years and adaptively apply it to novel driving situations. We instinctively understand things like the likely behaviour of pedestrians, the physics of traction on a wet road and the urgency implied by the flashing lights of an ambulance.

In contrast, autonomous driving systems are essentially trying to learn all of this from scratch based on statistical patterns in their training data. They have no innate model of how the world works.

However, the importance of human instinct and unconventional thinking extends far beyond the realm of autonomous vehicles. This is perhaps best exemplified by the stories of two visionary leaders: Steve Jobs and Howard Schultz.

Both these individuals made bold decisions that defied conventional wisdom and transformed their respective industries. Jobs decided to slash Apple’s product line and focus on simplicity and design, a move that laid the groundwork for the company’s future success with revolutionary products like the iPhone and iPad.

Schultz decided to close all Starbucks stores for a few hours to re-train baristas, a costly move but one that ultimately re-energized the company’s workforce and set the stage for a remarkable turnaround.

Sports provides an interesting counterpoint and testing ground for AI decision-making. A restricted domain, clear objective function and wealth of detailed data make sports more amenable to AI application.

We’re already seeing AI-powered decision support being used for things like performance analysis, roster construction and talent scouting. Over time, it’s possible that AI systems could become skilled enough to serve as head coaches and general managers.

However, top coaches and captains don’t just feed historical data into an algorithm. They synthesize myriad subtle factors in real-time and make judgement calls informed by deep experience. As technologist Jensen Huang puts it, “You can’t coach resilience and character. And that, in the end, is the most important thing."

Indian chess prodigy D. Gukesh’s victory over world chess champion Ding Liren during the 2024 FIDE World Championship underscores the role of human intuition in critical decision-making.

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Much like Mahendra Singh Dhoni’s decision to promote himself in the 2011 Cricket World Cup final, Gukesh’s performance demonstrated the ability of human instinct to excel under high-pressure scenarios.

By recognizing and exploiting subtle weaknesses in Ding’s play, Gukesh exhibited extraordinary situational awareness, blending technical precision with psychological insight.

Such decisions, informed by experience and situational awareness, highlight the enduring importance of qualities that AI cannot yet replicate, such as adaptability and emotional intelligence.

The path forward likely involves pursuing multiple complementary approaches in parallel. We should push the boundaries of what AI can do in critical decision-making and look for ways to harness its analytical power.

At the same time, we must remain clear-eyed about its current limitations and not expect it to substitute human judgement in the near term. Striking the right balance will require deep inter-disciplinary collaboration and a commitment to rigorous empirical validation.

By bringing together experts from fields like AI, psychology, neuroscience and domain-specific areas, we can push the boundaries of what AI can do, while also staying grounded in the realities of its current limitations.

This collaborative approach will be key to developing AI systems that can effectively augment human decision-making while preserving the vital role of human judgement and instinct.

Ultimately, the future of decision-making will likely involve a symbiotic relationship between humans and machines, each playing to their unique strengths to navigate an increasingly complex and fast-paced world.

As we stand on the cusp of this new era, it is up to us to shape the trajectory of AI development in a way that enhances rather than replaces the remarkable capacities of the human mind.

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By doing so, we can harness the power of AI to make better decisions, while making the best use of human creativity, adaptability and instinct, which have been the hallmarks of our progress throughout history.

The authors are, respectively, an adjunct professor of data and digital economy and head, Digital India Foundation and policy manager, Digital India Foundation.